Can Wrexham get promoted again? What the numbers say...

Wrexham have gone full circle. Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney’s predecessors as owners saw them fall from League One to non-league. Now they are back where the fans feel they belong.

For the first time in 19 years, the Welsh side are back in the third tier after back-to-back promotions from the National League and League Two. The Hollywood story is going up.

But the question is now how far can this go? And if it is the top, how quickly will it come?

After all, Luton went from League Two runners-up to League One champions in successive seasons between 2018 and 2020. And Ipswich have just become the fifth side to do back-to-back promotions to reach the Premier League. After they had a winning start to life with a 3-2 win over Wycombe last week, is the top-flight dream actually closer than it looks for the Welsh side?

Wrexham’s rise has been emphatic but rather predictable looking at the numbers. They arrived in League Two having earned twice as much revenue in 2023 as the average fourth-tier club had in the previous season, while their £6.9m wage bill was well above the division’s average.

Their revenue was also double the size of Stockport and Mansfield – who joined them in automatic promotion to the third tier. The only surprise was Wrexham finished as League Two runners-up, not winners.

Now they go into League One armed with another war chest. Their 2023 revenue was already higher than the average third-tier club for the 2022-23 season. On top of that, their average Racecourse Ground attendance of 12,200 would have been the seventh-highest League One attendance last season.

Financial experts, meanwhile, have predicted Wrexham’s revenue for 2024 could feasibly reach £20m – they are likely to have the budget and stature to compete at the very top of the third tier.

And the reason for their high revenue is predominantly their owners.

The high-profile nature of Reynolds and McElhenney, which led to the success of the Welcome to Wrexham documentary, has attracted commercial interest never seen before in the lower leagues of English professional football.

Wrexham’s story being told to a global audience led to 25 per cent of their 2023 revenue coming from outside the United Kingdom. The club also sold over 50,000 shirts last season as a League Two side – those numbers are comparable with a bottom-half Premier League team.

It all goes to show that while Wrexham venturing into the third tier is relatively new for these specific owners, staff and players, as a club they have been operating at League One levels – at the very least – for some time. And they have the players to prove it.

Three seasons ago, Wrexham signed the League Two top goalscorer Paul Mullin when they were still a National League club and selling team Cambridge had just been promoted to League One. Third-tier striker Ollie Palmer joined six months later from AFC Wimbledon.

A year after that, Elliot Lee was set for League One football after being let go by Championship side Luton, but instead moved to non-league Wrexham. All three have been key members of Wrexham’s attack – not just on the pitch, but up the English football pyramid too.

In fact, Wrexham have signed 13 players from League One clubs since the 2021-22 season, with a further seven coming from Championship teams. Out of those 20 players, 17 are still in their squad going into the new campaign – showing how much depth the club has beyond its starting team.

With Will Rathbone joining from League One promotion rivals Rotherham this week, it shows the pulling power Wrexham has over its rivals.

“We had a really strong squad for the National League and League Two and now we have a strong squad for League One,” said Lee to Sky Sports News on EFL 72 Live. “There’s still a couple of weeks left in the transfer window and I’m sure we will be strengthening again.

“We have two great players for every position and it’s important to have a strong squad in this league.”

That depth has led to Wrexham manager Phil Parkinson being very vocal about going into the season aiming for the top, but even with a League One-ready squad, there are naturally no guarantees.

Birmingham were relegated into the division with the former status of Championship regulars and similar American backing from Tom Brady and Co. Bolton have finished fifth and third in League One in the previous two seasons. Huddersfield, also relegated into the division this season, were in the Championship play-off final – and one win away from the Premier League – as recently as two years ago.

Going into the season, Wrexham were actually predicted to finish in 20th place in League One – just one place above the relegation zone – by the Opta supercomputer. In its 10,000 simulations, the Hollywood-owned club finished in the top two automatic promotion spots on just two occasions.

So while Wrexham were the main attraction in League Two last season, this year feels more of a levelling ground. On the club’s tour of the United States and Canada, Parkinson even dared to call them League One’s “underdogs”.

“We obviously had such high expectations when we were in the National League and League Two,” added Lee last week. “But there is a sense that we’re not favourites to win this league.

“We all want to be right up there and get promoted but maybe a little bit of less pressure and expectation might do us good! You never know how it’s going to work.”

And if they are to be up against it this season, that will also suit Wrexham. Despite finishing as League Two runners-up last season, Parkinson’s side averaged less than 50 per cent possession and often sat in a compact 3-5-2 shape. They are comfortable letting the opposition have the ball, but when they get possession, they’re effective with it with a direct style, administered by players who are used to this level.

It was the same on the opening day win over Wycombe, with Wrexham allowing their opponents to have 56 per cent possession – but Parkinson’s team ran out convincing 3-2 winners.