– Loonie drifting higher on talk for aggressive Fed rate cuts.
– Australian inflation rises more than expected, but below last month.
– US dollar opens modestly higher but remains on the defensive.
USDCAD: open1.3460, overnight range 1.3441-1.3469, close 1.3443, WTI $74.69, Gold, $2510.32
The Canadian dollar scratched out further gains yesterday and then consolidated them in a quiet overnight session. The Canadian dollar is benefiting from widespread US dollar selling against the majors on anticipation of a faster and deeper pace of Fed interest rate cuts. That sentiment intensified after Fed Chair Jerome Powel’s Jackson Hole speech last Friday.
However, it should be noted that the US dollar losses may be exaggerated because of thin, last-week-of-summer holiday markets in an environment devoid of actionable top tier economic data.
West Texas Intermediate oil prices are choppy and torn between concerns about rising production in the face of weaker Chinese demand, and supply disruption fears due Middle East events. WTI is at the bottom of its 73.86-75.95 overnight range in early NY trading.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index edged up by 0.22% despite Typhoon Shanshan forcing Toyota to shut down all its domestic factories. Australia’s ASX 200 remained flat, showing no change by the close. European markets are trending upward, with Germany’s DAX index rising 0.71%. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are unchanged, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at 3.817%.
EURUSD erased all of its gains from the previous day, moving within a 1.1132-1.1186 range and currently hitting session lows in New York trading. The drop wasn’t driven by a specific catalyst, but rather some profit-taking and speculation that the ECB might have to mirror the Fed’s rate cuts.
GBPUSD declined from 1.3264 to 1.3215, largely due to profit-taking, and is hovering just above its session low in early New York trading. With little domestic data to influence decisions, UK traders appear content to stay on the sidelines.
USDJPY recovered some of its previous losses, climbing from 143.69 to 144.61. Traders are holding back in anticipation of a series of economic reports tomorrow, including employment figures, Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production, and Large Retailer Sales. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino hinted that more rate hikes could be on the horizon.
AUDUSD closed at 0.6793 but briefly jumped to 0.6813 following a higher-than-expected Australian CPI reading (3.5% actual vs. 3.4% forecast). However, the gains were short-lived, and the pair dropped to 0.6782 as the result still fell short of the 3.8% seen in June, and core inflation metrics were also on the decline.
There are no major Canadian or US economic releases today.
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