– Canada’s economy expected to have grown minimally in July.
– US Core-PCE-Price Index forecast unchanged at 0.2% m/m
– US dollar trades modestly lower compared to yesterday- JPY soars.
USDCAD: open 11.3479, overnight range 1.3464-1.3496, close 1.3465, WTI $67.72, Gold, $2663.68
The Canadian dollar drifted aimlessly in a narrow range overnight. Traders did not have any interest in the Loonie ahead of the morning’s Canadian GDP data and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure-Core CPI report.
The Canadian economy is expected to have grown just 0.1% m/m in July, which is what Statistics Canada projected last month. Some economists think there is an upside risk to todays data which if correct could reignite Canadian dollar buying demand. That’s because evidence of stronger than expected economic growth would preclude the Bank of Canada from slashing interest rates by 50 bps on October 23.
The Canadian dollar saw modest negative pressure because of soft oil prices. WTI dropped to 67.06 from 68.14 due to ongoing fears on increased supply from Opec, despite hopes that the latest Chinese stimulus initiatives reignite demand from that country.
Traders are also biding their time until the Core-PCE-price index data is released. The consensus in that it will be unchanged at 0.2% m/m in August. If so, it confirms the Fed’s decision to shift their focus to economic growth.
EURUSD traded within a range of 1.1125-1.1179 overnight. This morning’s reports indicated a slight easing in Economic Sentiment and Employment Expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of the ECB cutting rates at its October 17 meeting.
GBPUSD danced between 1.3360 and 1.3420, dipping in Asian trading before rebounding to 1.3394 in early New York hours. The pair remains supported following the Bank of England’s “hawkish hold,” where rates were left unchanged, but the door was left open for potential hikes due to ongoing inflation concerns.
USDJPY saw volatile action in an eventful overnight session. After closing in New York at 144.81, it surged to 146.49 on the back of fresh Chinese stimulus before tumbling to 142.78. The drop followed news that pro-Asian NATO supporter Shigeru Ishiba won the election to replace Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, defeating Sanae Takaichi, whose policies were seen as bearish for the yen due to her preference for continued Bank of Japan easing.
AUDUSD traded in a narrow range of 0.6868-0.6900 overnight, buoyed by China’s stimulus efforts but tempered by caution ahead of today’s US PCE data and the upcoming weekend.
