Gov. Gavin Newsom’s political starpower dimmed as Vice President Kamala Harris rose to the top of the Democratic Party in the months before the 2024 election.
Fewer reporters tracked the California governor’s movements. Talk about his presidential prospects reduced to murmurs about whether he would be relevant in eight years. Some of his own political advisors shifted their attention to electing Harris.
That’s all expected to change after her presidential campaign against former President Trump crashed and burned Tuesday and voters elected the Republican to a second term in the nation’s highest office.
“Newsom is going to lead the resistance government for the next two years as governor, and then after that, he is a very prominent and nationally recognized party leader,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political communications at USC, UC Berkeley and Pepperdine.
“There will be dozens of other plausible Democrats thinking about the 2028 race, but none of them start with the advantages that Newsom has developed for himself.”
As the liberal antithesis to conservative dogma on abortion, immigration and LGBTQ+ rights, California is naturally poised to reprise the role the state played during the first Trump presidency as a GOP foil and protector of Democratic values. Democrats in the state Capitol are already talking about calling a special legislative session before Trump is sworn in to strengthen state laws against potential federal challenges.
California’s position automatically elevates Newsom, who has spent the last few years boosting his profile in the culture wars against Republicans, raising millions of dollars for Democratic candidates and touring the nation as a surrogate for Biden and Harris, in talks about 2028 presidential contenders.
In an interview after he rallied for Democratic congressional candidates two days before the election, Newsom didn’t want to discuss the reality of the election as a critical inflection point in his own political future. The governor is often coy about running for president and says it isn’t on his radar.
Instead the Democratic governor shared his worries about Trump returning to the White House, and talked about his administration’s work to prepare in the months before the election.
“He wants to put a crowbar in the spokes of our wheels within a nanosecond,” Newsom said.
In his acceptance speech Tuesday night, Trump declared that American had given him “an unprecedented and powerful mandate.” He also pledged to make good on his campaign promises, which include mass deportations, prosecuting his political enemies and cutting off federal disaster aid for California’s wildfires, among dozens of other declarations.
The Newsom administration completed an analysis of Project 2025, which has been described as a playbook for a new GOP administration that includes plans for replacing thousands of career federal workers with Trump supporters who will carry out a far-right agenda. The governor’s staff also analyzed what could be at risk in California.
His administration, with the help of state Atty Gen. Rob Bonta, has already begun to “Trump-proof” the state. They reviewed more than 100 lawsuits California filed against the federal government during the first administration to pinpoint potential vulnerabilities for the state and map out the president-elect’s agenda.
Though Newsom said it’s premature to definitively say that he would call the newly elected state Legislature into special session in December to pass laws to protect state policies before Trump takes office, both he and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Hollister) have said it’s a possibility. A special session focused on abortion rights and climate change are top considerations for the Newsom administration.
“There’s a diagram of everything that these guys have talked about in relation to California, everything we’ve dealt with in the past,” Newsom said Sunday. “There’s an understanding of where they want to go in the future.”
Trump’s victory could make it more challenging for Newsom to carry out his own agenda before he terms out of office in two years.
Newsom said Sunday that he has a list of “73 things” he wants to get done. Before election day, aides said his sweeping list included better preparing the state for bird flu outbreaks and building enough electric vehicle charging infrastructure to support his goal of banning the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035.
The governor pushed back on the notion that Trump would thwart his plans, but said he wasn’t naive about “this being a very challenged environment” if Trump won. He called the former president “delusional,” “completely unmoored. Unhinged.”
“We continue to drive that hard with the same kind of energy,” Newsom said Sunday. “But there’s a lot of noise and I’m very familiar with it. I dealt with this guy for years. I’m better prepared than most.”
As the state that’s home to Rep. Adam B. Schiff, who was elected California’s junior senator on Tuesday, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Harris, Newsom said, there’s no bigger target for Trump than California.
“We’re not going to be timid. We’re not just going to sit here on the defense and we’re going to build coalitions, and we’re going to build partnerships with other states and AGs, not just other governors,” Newsom said before the election.
Newsom burnished his brand as a fighter for the party after calling out national Democrats for failing to go on the offensive in the culture wars. The California Democrat launched his own “Campaign for Democracy” in 2023 and gave himself an avenue to travel the country to raise money for other Democrats and increase his name recognition.
Newsom became a top surrogate for Biden after the president announced his reelection campaign, all the while continuing to visit other states in the name of Democrats and debating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Fox News. Newsom remained a Biden loyalist even as other top Democrats called for the president to step out of the 2024 race after his poor debate performance over the summer.
Once Biden endorsed Harris as his replacement on the ballot, buzz about Newsom shifted to questions about what he would do after he termed out in California and if he would be able keep his name in the news for a potential presidential run in 2032 if Harris beat Trump and won a second term.
Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant, said Newsom has positioned himself well on cultural issues within the party that matter to the Democratic base of white, college-educated, home-owning, upper-middle-class voters.
But questions remain if another Californian can win over the American people in four years. Harris’ failure in the presidential race underscored the reality that Democrats need to be able to speak to working-class issues if they want to beat Republicans and regain the White House, Madrid said.
“I think that no Democrat is going to be viable going forward, unless you can appeal to the Latino working class,” Madrid said. “And that’s not at the top of his resume.”
So there’s reason to be skeptical about how far Newsom could ascend, Madrid said, should he choose to run for president.
“In a primary, he plays really well, but there’s going to be a question of viability, of can he get an Arizona, a Nevada, a Pennsylvania, a North Carolina back into the fold and make it competitive?”
