Major market segments saw mixed results for seasonally adjusted prices year over year in the first half of November.
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 1.6% from October in the first 15 days of November, according to Cox Automotive figures released Nov. 19.
The mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index increased to 206.1 and now shows a gain of 0.5% from the full month of November 2023.
The seasonal adjustment amplified the results for the month, as the seasonal factor moved much closer to the long-term average for November. The non-adjusted price change in the first half of November rose 0.2% compared to October, and the unadjusted price was down only 0.6% year over year. Typically, the average move for the month of November is a decrease of four-tenths of a point for seasonally adjusted values, highlighting that this mid-month change shows much less depreciation than usual.
“Supply for both wholesale and retail used-vehicle markets has continued to decline over the last month,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Insights at Cox Automotive. “With sales conversion moving higher for six weeks in a row, it’s not surprising to see strength in wholesale prices in early November. Typically, November shows relatively small monthly declines in values; but so far, we’ve seen prices increase for both seasonally adjusted values and non-seasonally adjusted prices. Retail used-vehicle sales have also increased for five consecutive weeks, and that should keep dealer demand for wholesale units elevated in coming weeks.”
Over the last two weeks, the Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices in the Three-Year-Old Index declined an aggregate of 0.3%, well below the typical normal decline of 1% observed at this time of year.
During the first 15 days of November, MMR Retention, the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 99.4%, indicating that valuation models have moved closer to market prices early in November. MMR Retention is up four-tenths of a point compared to the prior year at the beginning of November.
The average daily sales conversion rate of 59.9% in the first half of the month was above the November 2019 daily average of 50.8% by a wide margin, and it has increased over the last two weeks as well. The conversion rate has risen by over 3 points from October 2024, indicating that buying demand has strengthened over the first half of November.
Major market segments saw mixed results for seasonally adjusted prices year over year in the first half of November. Compared to the industry’s year-over-year increase of 0.5%, mid-size cars rose by 1%, and SUVs showed no change over the period. The other major segments fell more than the industry overall, with compact cars decreasing by 0.3%, luxury down by 1.5%, and pickup trucks falling the most once again, dropping 2% compared to last year.
When compared to the end of October, each segment displayed a rise in values. The overall industry rose by 1.6% compared to the prior month, and SUVs showed the strongest results, rising by 1.7%. Mid-size cars and the luxury segments also rose by 1.6%, while compacts increased by 1.2%, and pickup trucks increased by 0.9%.
Electric vehicles (EVs) again showed high depreciation levels, down 11% from November 2023, while the non-EV segment displayed an increase of 0.2% over the same period. Against October values, EVs increased by 0.6% in the first half of November, while non-EVs were higher by 1.6%.
Wholesale Supply is Down in Mid-November
Leveraging Manheim sales and inventory data, estimated wholesale supply ended October at 28 days, up one day from the end of September and flat against October 2023. Wholesale supply is relatively tighter for this time of year, running three days lower than the longer-term levels for this week. As of Nov. 15, wholesale supply decreased by one day from the end of October, moving to 27 days, down one day versus last year.
Measures of Consumer Sentiment Showing Strong Improvement in November
The initial November reading on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan increased by 3.5% to 73.0, which was stronger than expected and left the index up 19% yearly. Future expectations drove the increase. Expectations for inflation in one year declined to 2.6% from 2.7%, but expectations for inflation in five years increased to 3.1% from 3%. Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles improved slightly as both views of prices and interest rates improved.
The daily consumer sentiment index from Morning Consult has increased by 4.5% through Nov. 15, leaving the index up 14.5% year over year. It increased by 1.4% in October, extending a four-month upward trend.
The average price of unleaded gasoline declined by 1.4% to $3.08 per gallon as of Nov. 15, which was down 8% year over year.
