Race for the Champions League: Who is most likely to qualify for next season?

The last 16 of this year’s Champions League has not even begun but with the Premier League home straight in sight, thoughts are already turning to qualifying for next year’s tournament.

The race for the top four – or most likely five, but we will come back to that later – is pretty tight, as only six points separate Nottingham Forest in third and Aston Villa all the way down in 10th, with up to 33 points left to play for.

Liverpool and Arsenal look certain to reach next season’s Champions League and enjoy 21-point and eight-point buffers over fifth spot already. Opta give Liverpool a 100 per cent chance of finishing in the top four, with Arsenal only a tad less likely with a 99.9 per cent chance.

Behind them there are more than half a dozen teams, including Manchester City and Chelsea – but also surprise packages Forest and Bournemouth – in with a shot of making it over the line. With the teams so tightly bunched, things can change very quickly.

Nottingham Forest boosted their chances by holding second-placed Arsenal to a goalless draw at the City Ground, avoiding a run of three straight defeats.

Newcastle, meanwhile, have seen a bump in the road after a 2-0 defeat to runaway league leaders Liverpool made it three league defeats in four matches. That allowed Man City to climb into fourth place via a 1-0 win over lowly Tottenham.

Chelsea have also climbed into the top five via a 4-0 win over bottom club Southampton to slightly boost their chances of reaching the Champions League.

Bournemouth’s Champions League dream took a hit following back-to-back defeats to Wolves and Brighton, who have now moved level on points with the Cherries following that victory.

Meanwhile, Aston Villa’s credentials took a hit as they were beaten 4-1 by Crystal Palace, with Unai Emery’s side currently undergoing some sketchy form.

And are Fulham in the mix now after their 2-1 win over Wolves lifted them up to ninth? Brentford‘s chances of Europe took a hit as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Everton.

Will the Premier League have five Champions League spots next season?

It is not certain but is very likely that England will have at least five spots in next season’s Champions League for the first time since 2017/18, owing to the Premier League’s performance in Europe.

Six of the seven English teams involved in European competition this season have made it through to the last 16 of their respective tournaments, with only Man City absent following their Champions League play-off defeat to Real Madrid.

That puts England comfortably at the top of the charts for its European coefficient this season, which is an accumulation of wins and draws picked up by each country’s sides and further points awarded for how far they make it in each continental competition.

The top-two ranked countries at the end of the season will receive an extra Champions League place next season, with Italy and Spain currently battling it out for second spot.

A word of caution, though. England was comfortably top of the UEFA coefficient list for much of last season before a raft of eliminations from European competition saw their hopes of an extra qualifying disappear, confining fifth-placed Tottenham to this season’s Europa League instead of the Champions League.

Should the Premier League’s representatives on the continent find themselves on the wrong end of some more tricky draws, the same thing could happen this time around.

There is another way England could end up with five – or perhaps even six spots. That outcome would occur if either of Tottenham or Manchester United win this season’s Europa League while also finishing outside of the qualifying spots in the Premier League.

Who is most likely to reach the top four – or five?

There may still be 11 matches to go but Opta has given both Liverpool and Arsenal an almost certain chance of reaching next season’s Champions League owing to their buffer over the teams below them and the difficulty of their remaining fixtures relative to the other sides in the race.

With that in mind, Man City are third-favourites to qualify for next season’s tournament despite sitting behind Forest in the table – with their win over Spurs seeing their top-five chances going from 86 per cent to 91.8 per cent. Pep Guardiola’s side also have a 82.8 per cent chance of finishing in the top four.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s Forest have the next-best chance of rounding off the top four with a 40.8 per cent chance, but they are closely followed by Chelsea (32.7 per cent) and Newcastle (26.7 per cent).

The top five situation looks better for Forest, who have a 62.3 per cent chance of securing that feat which will likely secure Champions League football next season. But again, Chelsea (54 per cent) and Newcastle (47.9 per cent) are also in the mix.

Bournemouth’s defeat to Brighton has given the Cherries’ chances a real dent, with their likelihood of a top-five finishing dropping to 22.2 per cent – meaning they are twice as likely to miss out compared to Newcastle and Chelsea.

Meanwhile, Brighton’s chances have been given a minor boost with their top-five percentages jumping to 14.1 per cent – which is greater than Fulham (3 per cent), Aston Villa (4.2 per cent), Brentford (0.6 per cent) and Crystal Palace (0.3 per cent) combined.

Spurs, meanwhile, saw their very slim chances of a top five finish (0.5 per cent) extinguish to 0 per cent.

But with the Premier League top half so tight, all of that could easily change over the next three months.

Here is the average position of each Premier League side’s next five opponents, taking them right into the final throes of the season…

Remaining games between the teams in the mix…

Teams included with a one-per-cent or greater chance of qualifying:

• March 8: Nottingham Forest vs Man City, Brighton vs Fulham
• March 15: Man City vs Brighton
• March 16: Arsenal vs Chelsea – live on Sky Sports
• April 1: Arsenal vs Fulham, Brighton vs Aston Villa
• April 5: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest, Fulham vs Liverpool
• April 12: Bournemouth vs Fulham
• April 19: Aston Villa vs Newcastle, Fulham vs Chelsea
• April 26: Man City vs Aston Villa
• May 3: Aston Villa vs Fulham, Brighton vs Newcastle, Chelsea vs Liverpool
• May 10: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, Liverpool vs Arsenal, Newcastle vs Chelsea
• May 18: Arsenal vs Newcastle, Brighton vs Liverpool, Man City vs Bournemouth
• May 25: Fulham vs Man City, Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea