Take out penalties and the only player with a higher rate of expected goals per 90 minutes than Nicolas Jackson since the start of last season is Erling Haaland. For a time, this impressive statistic was a stick with which to beat the Chelsea forward.
Expected goals? What about actual goals? Jackson’s finishing was widely mocked, his wastefulness in front of goal seen as a problem that could not be solved. And it was true that he underperformed more than the other top scorers in the Premier League.
Crucially, however, he was still among those top scorers. Fourteen goals in a fraught debut season at Stamford Bridge was a far from disastrous return for a player who is still only 23 and perhaps deserved more slack than he was given. Now we are seeing why.
After all, Jackson always did get into good positions, his runs creating space. This season, his 571 high-speed runs are the most of any Premier League player. He has covered around 400 metres more than anyone else while running at pace. Unseen work.
Nicolas Jackson has made the most high-speed runs of any player this season
“We are very happy with the way Nico is playing on the ball,” said Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca recently. “But especially in the way he is playing off the ball – the way he is pressing.” And yet, it all felt moot until the goals started to flow. Now that is happening.
His opener in Chelsea’s 3-0 win over Aston Villa means that Jackson has scored in four of his last six games. For expected goals, he ranks third excluding penalties. The difference is that while those numbers remain good, so, finally, is his actual goals total.
There is always a bit of noise in the finishing data, a fumble here or a fortunate strike there. Jackson’s turnaround is a victory for the analysts. Keep making the runs, keep firing off the shots from good areas, and those precious goals will eventually come.
Dibling’s dribbling for Saints
Southampton remain rooted to the foot of the Premier League table, four points from safety despite their point at Brighton on Friday. But Tyler Dibling still managed to catch the eye. The sight of him running at defences is proving one of the thrills of the season.
The 18-year-old winger was involved in 27 duels in this latest appearance – one off the Premier League high of 28 this season. Many of those were him engaging with his marker in one-on-one situations. He attempted nine dribbles in the match.
Location of Tyler Dibling’s nine dribbles for Southampton against Brighton
Only four were successful but Dibling’s willingness to try to make things happen feels essential for a Saints side that have made more passes than every team except Manchester City and Liverpool, but had fewer shots than every team except Leicester and Ipswich.
Southampton’s biggest threat came from the right flank against Brighton
It can all be a little bit too passive until the ball eventually reaches the fast feet of Dibling. He won a penalty against Liverpool last weekend and was fouled a further six times against Brighton – more than any other player over the Premier League weekend.
Only Bruno Guimaraes against Arsenal has won more fouls in a game this season and only the Newcastle midfielder is winning fouls more regularly overall. It all stems from Dibling’s direct approach, a refreshing approach that is winning admirers if not games.
Zirkzee’s role under Amorim
Rasmus Hojlund had scored twice in Europa League against Bodo/Glimt on Thursday, with Joshua Zirkzee staying on the bench. But the Dutch striker was recalled by Ruben Amorim against Everton and responded with his first two goals since August.
Amad Diallo was the outstanding player on the pitch for Manchester United in their 4-0 win on Sunday but Zirkzee’s display was perhaps the most encouraging given that this was a player who had been much criticised – even written off by some after such a sluggish start.
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Highlights from the Premier League match between Manchester United and Everton
Already, there is a sense that Amorim has a better idea of how to utilise his strengths. Rather than being deployed high up the pitch, the new United boss appears to have instantly recognised that Zirkzee is far happier dropping deep to influence play.
“I think we need the characteristics of Josh in this game,” Amorim told Sky Sports beforehand, foretelling what was to come. “They have two centre-backs who are strong in the air and I want someone more technical who can reach the ball in different areas.”
Joshua Zirkzee made many of his passes for Manchester United against Everton from deep
Zirkzee scored from his two shots but it was his link-up play that really stood out. He received more passes from Lisandro Martinez than from anyone else, turning balls around the corner, one and two touch, seeming to relish the movement that was around him.
He completed all seven of his passes in the final third but much of his work came far deeper. It seems a better use of his talents. Zirkzee is certainly not the quickest of United’s forwards but he might be the most technically adept. Belatedly, his role looks clearer.
Previously in The Debrief
GW1: Salah’s sprints, Saka’s one-on-ones, Mount’s pressing
GW2: Calvert-Lewin’s runs, Odegaard’s pressing, Pereira’s corners
GW3: De Bruyne’s position, Gravenberch’s runs, Dawson’s return
GW4: Nuno’s masterclass, Duran’s strike rate, Nketiah’s shooting
GW5: Diaz’s finishing, Traore’s end product, Archer’s issues
GW6: McNeil’s role, Kulusevski’s creativity, Gravenberch’s carrying
GW7: Saka’s creativity, Kovacic’s shooting, Mitoma’s return to form
GW8: Rashford’s form, Buonanotte’s tackling, Gvardiol’s passing
GW9: Palmer’s positioning, Iwobi’s passing, Savinho’s box entries
GW10: Semenyo’s dribbles, Salah’s box-skills, Caicedo’s tackling
GW11: Fernandes’ positioning, Cunha’s form, Robinson’s overlaps
GW12: Haaland’s wastefulness, Odegaard’s return, Lemina’s switch
