The jury is out on Man Utd again with the club languishing in the bottom half of the Premier League table – but is there any indication of improvement?
Erik ten Hag claimed his side lacked 99 per cent effort in their disappointing Europa League 1-1 draw with Twente on Wednesday, while the club sits 11th in the Premier League after five games.
However, the underlying numbers suggest his side have, in fact, improved since last season during the opening five league games this term – ranking in the top five across a raft of key attacking metrics.
Sunday 29th September 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
At the other end of the pitch, United were criticised heavily for facing 667 shots in the Premier League last term – only Sheffield United faced more.
However, that number has nearly halved as a per-match average this term. In fact, only five clubs have faced fewer shots.
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Manchester United scored 10 goals in two games recently but their underlying numbers highlight a finishing problem for them and captain Bruno Fernandes
Meanwhile, there have been slight improvements in other defensive areas, having also made a league-topping 59 interceptions.
From overachievers to underachievers
United would jump six places into fifth spot in the Sky Sports expected Premier League table, which is based on expected goals (xG) for and against.
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Sky Sports’ Vinny O’Connor and Adam Bate reflect on Manchester United’s 1-1 draw with FC Twente in the Europa League
Here, Ten Hag’s side would sit just three points adrift from table-topping local rivals Manchester City.
In terms of the difference between actual and expected league positions, United are the league’s joint-biggest underachievers this term – along with Southampton.
Last season, United were overachieving – finishing eighth with their xG numbers placing them in 14th, just 15 points above the relegation zone. Only West Ham outperformed their underlying numbers more than Ten Hag’s side.
Despite overachieving, the club’s eighth-place finish was their worst league finish during the Premier League era.
The root cause
So, why are United sat in 11th when xG says they should be six places higher in fifth spot? Well, Ten Hag’s men have scored around five goals fewer than expected, based on the quality of chances they have created in front of goal.
Again, only Southampton have a worse differential in the Premier League this season.
United have missed a league-high 17 big chances so far – five more than any other side.
Which players are most culpable? Bruno Fernandes has registered 1.86 xG but is yet to find the back of the net. Meanwhile, Joshua Zirkee and Alejandro Garnacho should have scored at least twice but have each only scored once.
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A look at the best goals from Manchester United vs Tottenham in the Premier League, featuring stunners from Cristiano Ronaldo, Nani and Jermain Defoe
The trio rank among the bottom five for xG differentials this term, along with Cameron Archer (Southampton), Evanilson (Bournemouth) and Rodrigo Muniz (Fulham).
Is there a shining light? In terms of getting into the box and creating chances, the chart below reveals Amad Diallo has outshone his team-mates by a distance so far – earning ample game-time during the early stages of this campaign.
Is inconsistency a factor?
Marcus Rashford scored his first goal since March against Southampton a fortnight ago and followed up with a double during the 7-0 win over Barnsley, but started on the bench against Crystal Palace and failed to score against Twente.
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An image of the proposed new Manchester United stadium to replace Old Trafford
The England forward started centrally in the Carabao Cup – a position he has occupied in almost 30 per cent of his game-time under Ten Hag.
Given United’s blunt edge in front of goal, question marks remain over whether Rashford should assume the regular No 9 role.
There have also been inconsistencies at the other end of the pitch, with no centre-back partnership clocking more than 500 league minutes together since the start of last season.
The most used partnership during that period has been 36-year-old Jonny Evans and Raphael Varane, who left the club this summer and retired from football this week at just 31 years old.
Has Ten Hag been backed?
Ten Hag has now entered his third season at Old Trafford after INEOS backed him to remain at the helm after a review in the summer.
The Dutchman has also been backed financially, with £616.8m splashed on signings during his tenure – only Chelsea have spent more during that time.
Additionally, in terms of the resources at his disposal, Ten Hag’s current squad cost around £888m to assemble. Again, only Chelsea’s squad surpasses that figure.
Ten Hag now faces a critical period with his side hosting Tottenham under the Sky cameras on Sunday, before traveling to Porto in the Europa League in midweek and playing high-flying Aston Villa on the road next weekend.
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Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag says his side were complacent in their 1-1 draw with FC Twente in the Europa League
Ten Hag has become a master at weathering storms during his time at Old Trafford and he appears to be approaching another make-or-break period.
This time, the Dutchman will be hoping his side materialise their underlying numbers by converting clear-cut chances into goals.
