– Mixed messaging on tariff start dates confuse markets
– US/Ukraine mineral deal in focus
– US dollar rangebound in cautious trading.
USDCAD: open 1.4338, overnight range 1.4322-1.4364, close 1.4339, WTI 69.30, Gold 2892.08
The Canadian dollar is consolidating recent losses on the approach to the March 4 tariff date and ahead of a slew of US economic reports and speeches by Fed policymakers.
WTI oil prices rose from 68.48 yesterday to 69.27 today, driven by a 2.33 million-barrel decline in U.S. crude inventories last week, contrary to expectations of a 2.3 million-barrel increase. The upward momentum strengthened after Trump revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela, effective March 1, citing the Maduro government’s failure to meet electoral conditions.
Asian markets reacted favorably to Nvidia’s earnings report by lifting Japan’s Topix by 0.73% and Australia’s ASX 200 by 0.33%. European equities are under pressure from tariff concerns, with Germany’s DAX down 0.98% and France’s CAC 40 lower by 0.42%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.59%, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains steady at 4.31%.
EURUSD traded in a range of 1.0459-1.0493, in a choppy session due to Eurozone data and tariff uncertainty. The EU faces potential 25% tariffs on March 4 or April 4 which is adding to market unease. A rise in Eurozone economic sentiment to 96.3 from 95.3 in January provided some support, but expectations for additional ECB rate cuts kept gains in check. Intraday technicals remain bullish above 1.0440, with a break above 1.0530 needed to extend gains toward 1.0620.
GBPUSD inched higher in a 1.2650-1.2685 range. A lack of UK data left traders focused on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s meeting with Trump, where discussions on the US providing a security backstop for Ukraine are expected.
USDJPY bounced around in a 148.75-149.97 band. A decline in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield added some pressure, but traders remain focused on upcoming Japanese economic data, including Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales. Strong inflation readings could strengthen the case for a BoJ rate hike sooner rather than later.
AUDUSD traded between 0.6285-0.6315, underperforming as risk aversion increased due to uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff strategy. Sentiment was further dampened by weaker-than-expected Australian Capital Expenditures, which declined 0.2% in Q4 instead of the projected 0.8% increase.
Today’s U.S. data releases will be key in shaping USDCAD movement for the session. Weekly jobless claims are projected to rise by 2,000 to 221,000, while January Durable Goods Orders are anticipated to rebound by 2.0% following a previous 2.2% drop. Meanwhile, U.S. Q4 GDP growth is estimated at 2.2%.
